So I like to play craps, and I’ve read a few books on the game. One thing they all have in common is some kind of secret system that’s sure to beat the house. Everybody’s got a fail-safe, never-gonna-lose recipe for success. The part they all leave out is that to make any strategy work, you’ve got to apply it over and over. You’ve got to play the game frequently. Only then can the law of averages begin to have an effect. If you flip a coin 10 times, the outcomes are anyone’s guess. But flip a coin 10 thousand times and the outcomes will begin to mathematically approach 50-50.
So, if you live next to the casino, and tend to hang out there at least a couple of times a week, and you can maintain the discipline necessary to follow one of these winning strategies, well good on you mate!
But, for someone like me, who frequents the casino only on occasion, carrying only a small bankroll, and hopes to leave not feeling duped and taken for a fool, these strategies will never apply. Maybe I’ll hang for 2 or 3 hours and get in maybe 20 or 30 rounds, and just like the coin toss, my outcomes will be anyone’s guess. So, here’s my take on the game when you’re a casual player like me.
First, let’s talk odds. When you pull the handle on the slot machine, what are the chances you’re going to hit? Well, you don’t really know. Nowadays, the machines are electronic and the house can set the odds. They may get set differently depending on time of year, day of the week, what the casino’s revenue was last quarter, etc. The odds may even adjust in real time, while you’re sitting there, as the machine tries to detect what type of player you are, and how much money it thinks it can squeeze out of your wallet.
With dice it’s different. You know the odds in advance. There’s only a fixed number of outcomes when the bones are rolled. And in craps, you also know the payouts for the various bets. The game is fairly standard across casinos worldwide. You’ll also notice the casino pays out less than true odds, for almost all bets. If they paid true odds, they’d have a very short lifetime. Somebody's got to keep the lights on. The difference between what the casino pays when you win versus the true odds against winning...is called the vig. It’s the small commission the casino reserves for itself.
Recall the coin toss. What are the odds it will flip up heads? Well, it’s easy, the odds are true 50/50 because every time, it’s gonna be one or the other. So, let’s say a casino is offering a coin toss game and they are paying true odds, that is, 1-for-1. If you bet $20 and you win, they pay you $20. How long do you think the casino doors are going to stay open?
If the casino wants to survive, and certainly they do, they’d have to adjust the payout downward, perhaps to $18 on a $20 bet. The $2 difference is now the vig. Oh, and by the way, your chances of leaving a winner just went down as well.
The craps table has many bets to choose from. But you should know the odds. Casinos don’t typically want to advertise these. They like to entice you with the payouts, which for some bets, can be fantastic, but good luck with those. If the payout is high, you can be sure the odds are stacked against you. Fortunately for us, and unlike slot machines, dice are deterministic, albeit in a random way. Two 6-sided dice can only show in one of 36 possible combinations. So, the odds are fairly easy to determine.
However, the vig isn’t the same for every bet. Some bets have bigger vigs. These are usually the one roll or long shot bets with the big payouts. These are the sucker bets that are profit makers for the casino. Other bets have smaller vigs, that is, the payout is pretty close to true odds. And some bets even have no vig at all. Craps is the BEST game in the casino in terms of payouts versus odds of winning AND craps is the ONLY game in the casino offering payouts equal to true odds, even if only on a handful of bets. Winning at craps takes a smile from lady luck, let’s face it. But, you can position yourself in an optimal spot to be smiled upon, if you stick to bets with decent odds and the smallest vigs.
I just said winning. That word requires a definition. Winning at the casino is breaking even, because the casino almost always pays out less than true odds. So if you come away even, you’ve just beaten the casino. Of course, we always want to come away far above just even. And, that’s the allure. But while we play for that big score, we must avoid the big loss. So in that regard, at the end of the night, even is alright, given the alternative.
So let’s play.
Pass Line is a common bet and everybody almost always plays Pass Line. Did you know you have to make a Pass Line bet if you want to roll the dice? Otherwise, you get skipped over. Don’t Pass is just as good, if not even slightly better, although much less common, since dice rollers like to see other table players betting in their favor, and players tend to want to support one another. However bets are never for or against the shooter. This is a common illusion. Craps is a social game and table players tend to encourage and congratulate one another. Don't Pass is a bet that the dice will not go in the shooter's favor. But like all bets, this is a bet against the house. Still, it may be best to keep a low profile, near the corner of the table, if you want to be a “wrong” better.
Here’s a technique that might help avoid embarrassment. Play both Pass Line and Don’t Pass. Did you know, once made, a Pass Line bet cannot be removed, once a point has been established? But, a Don’t Pass bet can be picked up even after the point. So, I start with both and decide which one to play once the point has been made. If the point is a 5, 6, 8, or 9, I pick up the Don’t Pass bet and back up the Pass Line bet. If the point is a 4 or 10, I may have to say adios to my Pass Line bet, since it cannot be picked up, but I'm really choosing to invest and focus on my Don’t Pass bet.
Now backing up your Pass Line or Don’t Pass bet (called taking or laying odds respectively) is an optional bet but, should never be avoided. It’s the ONLY bet in the casino that pays straight odds. There is NO vig! It’s always worthwhile to back up your line bet with odds, whatever side of the fence you’re playing.
Casinos will advertise ridiculously high allowed odds like 10X or even 100X. Many authors suggest making the maximum odds bet, since it’s the best way to reduce the casino’s vig. However, unless you’ve got a Texas sized bankroll, a couple of plays that don’t go your way can quickly wipe you out. I play low odds (1X to 3X) and try to protect the bankroll.
Nowadays, it’s hard to find a $5 table, unless you’re playing on a Sunday morning with the bus people. Most minimums on weekend nights are $10 or $15 and I’m now starting to see more $25 tables. At these buy-ins, you can easily have $100 or more in play. A few 7’s in a row and you’ll be leaving with your tail between your legs.
So, I may play 1X or 2X odds on Pass Line. If I’m on a hot roll (very rare, by the way), maybe I’ll bump up to 3X. You’ve got to protect the bank roll!
If I’m on the Don’t side, laying odds on the 4 or 10 requires me to lay out the payout to collect the odds. It’s the opposite of Pass Line. For the 4 or 10, the true odds are 2:1. On Pass Line odds, you could bet $10 and win $20. But on Don’t Pass odds, you’ve got to lay out $20 to win $10. That’s because the true odds are really in your favor. It’s much more likely that the shooter will roll a 7 and you’ll win your bets. You may be inclined therefore to bump up to 2X odds or higher, given the likelihood of winning, but I don’t because it requires such a big outlay of cash. I’m there to play, not to lose my money.
So far, we’ve got a Pass and a Don’t Pass line bet. We pick up the Don’t Pass bet on a 5, 6, 8, or 9 and play it on a 4 or 10. We lay 1X odds on Don’t and take 2X odds on Pass.
Right after a point is made and we lay or take odds, we place a couple of numbers, even if we’re playing the Don’t. We always place 6 and 8, unless one of them is the point, in which case we either just place the other one, or place the two numbers on either side. We’re careful not to be greedy. Two hits on the place bets and we come down.
Place bets can be removed at any time and we take full advantage of this to protect our exposure. The vig is a bit higher on place bets. For 6 & 8, The payout is $7 for a $6 bet. That is, you’ve got to make your bets in increments of $6. On a $15 table, that’s $18 on #6 and $18 on #8 for a possible win of $21 on either. But, recall we’ve also got a Pass Line bet with at least 2X odds. That’s $30 already in play. Now, with two place bets, a 7 will cost us $66. Perhaps you can see why I worry about my bankroll. So, hit twice on 6 or 8 and come down. Then leave the $30 in play and wait for a decision.
Dice have no memory. Every roll is totally distinct from the previous. You could have just rolled a hundred 7’s in a row. The next roll doesn’t care. It will follow the odds. That is, there’s 6 chances out of 36 it will come up 7 again. This is a hard fact to accept. We all want to believe there’s some order to the outcomes, such that we can set an expectation, and bet accordingly. Authors will note that dice run in spells. They will look for cold tables to avoid, and hot tables to join. They will press their bets when the dice are coming up numbers. I try not to get sucked up into the allure. But it’s hard not to hope for good luck.
Anyway, the 7 will come, and usually much sooner than we’d like. So the idea is NOT to leave much on the table for too long. The $66 wipeout just recently detailed would take a long time to make back, at our slow and steady style of play.
Consider...once the point is established, the very next roll has a 6 out of 36 chance of coming up 7. But it has a 5 out of 36 chance of coming up 6 and another 5 out of 36 chance of coming up 8. That’s 10 shots at a win and 6 at a loss. That’s why we place the 6 and 8 anytime, even if we’re on the Don’t side. But, we take our small victory and politely leave once we’ve hit twice (or even once).
Another approach.
The downside to this style of play is we can’t really take advantage of a nice set of rolls. It’s certainly possible the 7 will wait to show. And while we wait, we may regret playing so conservatively, while more aggressive players at the table are raking in score after score. One way to play for a bigger score is to look for free bets.
Okay, no bets are free. But some bets can be inexpensive once you've hit once. Let's consider.
Forget the pass line for a moment. Some players focus elsewhere. You can always place the 6 & 8. And, every roll has a 10 to 6 advantage. And if we can afford it, we could play an amount beyond the minimum. Let’s say we’re at a $10 table. We would typically play the 6 & 8 for $12 each but tonight we’re feeling good. We play for $36 each. We’ve got $72 in play so, we’re out on the edge but, we hit either a 6 or 8 for $42. We essentially come down on our two $36 bets so, that money is now protected and we’ve got $42 now in our favor. So, we add $2 and go $44 inside. This covers the 6 & 8 for $12 each and the 5 & 9 for $10 each. The beauty of this strategy is it’s really next to a free bet because of our $42 win. If we wipeout on the next roll, we’re only exposing $2. The 7 really can’t hurt us and we can leave the bets in play as long as the dice will allow.
This is a favored style of play by John Patrick. He bypasses the come out roll entirely and only plays the place bets. He bets 6 and 8 right after a point has been established for an amount that, if he hits once, will let him go inside essentially for low money. The dealer has to rearrange your bets so betting in $5 chips makes this a bit easier, to keep him or her on your side.
And certainly, let’s give the dealer some.
It’s super hard to deal craps, in my opinion. You’ve got to think fast, never make a mistake, deal with obnoxious players, and you rotate positions every 15 minutes or so. You’ve got to deal chips AND play stick, which is challenging because of the myriad of one roll bets that are constantly coming in and paying out every time the dice roll.
One of the bets with the stick man (or woman) are the Hardways. These are not 1-roll bets, that is, they stay in play until they lose. And, they are low money bets. Many tables allow $1. You’re trying for 4, 6, 8, or 10 but, only with both die equal. Like a 6 made by 3 & 3, not by the more likely 2 & 4. Besides the dreaded 7, each bet loses if the easy-way comes up first. The bets have a large vig, are pretty profitable for the casino, and are not recommended for any consistent play strategy.
But, they’re great for showing your appreciation to the dealers. You can always make a bet for the dealers and they typically REALLY appreciate this. One way to gain favor would be to say, Hardways 2-way, and toss $8 on the table. You’re making 4 $1 bets for yourself and 4 more for the dealers. If one of them hits, everybody wins, and this is great for table dynamics. And, if the shooter makes his point, the bets stay in play for the next round.
Like I said, craps is often a social game. You can really make friends with other players at the table. If you want this, I recommend NOT playing Don’t Pass, congratulate other players when they win, make bets for the dealers on occasion, and in general have a happy disposition, even if you’re losing money. You will have a losing night once in a while. That’s why we bet conservatively and protect the bankroll. The idea is play, win a little perhaps, break even at worst, and leave the casino head held high.